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Allocation Supply Risk Intel

Allocation is the practical shape of a shortage. This hub tracks supplier queues, long-term agreements, lead-time pressure, recovery signals, and the procurement actions that matter when access beats price.

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  • Week 33: You're Escalating at the Wrong Tier: Week 33: the optics queue starts three tiers up. Coherent says indium phosphide capacity is its primary constraint — and that assembly and test are not. Lumentum is effectively sold out on pump lasers, the EML gap held while high-power lasers worsened, and substrate supplier AXT's backlog runs into 2027. Three tiers of one chain, one limit, with dated relief: Coherent doubles internal indium phosphide output this quarter, a quarter early, and again by end of 2027. Meanwhile Diodes' channel inventory sits below its normal 11–14 week band against record point-of-sale, and about $90 billion of new capacity commitments produce nothing before 2028.
  • Week 32: Your Expedite Just Stopped Working: Week 32: the buy side got in line, and the line now has a stated length. Microchip says orders placed inside lead time are going unsupported many times a quarter. onsemi's average lead time stretched from about 27 weeks to about 32 in one quarter. Vishay's book-to-bill hit 1.32, with customers ordering beyond 52 weeks to hold production slots, and ISM's Supplier Deliveries index has now slowed for eight straight months. SanDisk put a duration on it: bits stay on allocation beyond calendar 2027, with $93.9 billion committed at floor pricing across eight datacenter and edge customers. The honest counter is that the front end is not full — Microchip reports about $450 million of its own equipment still undeployed, with the constraint at substrates, subcontract assembly and test.
  • Week 25: Your NAND Quote Is Not the Only Problem — The Channel Started Moving: Week 25: Silicon Motion says the retail SSD market has almost disappeared as NAND routes to AI data centers and OEMs buy third-party drives. The shortage moved from price into the channel — and AI demand stays funded while system makers buy around the memory wall.
  • Week 24: Buyers Stopped Waiting for Memory — They Started Locking It In: Week 24: Biwin fixes its NAND price for 24 months, Nvidia and SK hynix lock a multi-year memory pact, and Xbox says 2027 storage will cost five times more. The biggest and most exposed buyers have stopped waiting for memory to get cheaper and started paying to lock it in.

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